If the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement, will China fill the void?
President-elect Trump is likely to take the US out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, just as he did in 2017. When the US pulls out, other countries step forward to take on leadership roles. China has emerged as a leader - really the dominant leader - when the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement. And the US becomes a very minor player in the on-going global UN negotiations on climate change. This has implications not just for fighting climate change, but for ther US ecomomy and its leadership in the world. These articles discuss this situation and its implications.
https://apple.news/AFzecoiEITeq8ty3udg0l5w
https://apple.news/AB6diKuhZQBOqkA3KuwxKUw
https://apple.news/A4ECq5REMQ8S-nKKmJZXnQg
This subject I find quite harrowing as there is no doubt in my mind Trump will withdraw from the Paris Agreement. I think the US contribution to carbon emissions is going to skyrocket in the coming years due to Trump's favoring of large oil companies and embrace of Elon Musk's favor for AI usage and Crypto mining that beget immense data usage and emissions to utilize. Both I find extremely unethical. It's extremely frustrating that our country is still willing to instill people who deny climate change into positions of power at a time when we're already reaping the consequences. As far as China stepping in, I think it could be an interesting development. China's dense population has faced issues of emissions and air quality within major cities for years, however with their role as such a major part of the manufacturing industry and contributions to unsustainable consumerist practices, I find it unlikely they'd risk the economic power this grants them for the betterment of global resilience. While it would be ideal, I find it hard to believe they'd find that in their self-interest, though that could just be my perspective living in a country whose current values have proven to be extremely selfish and profit-driven.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate-treaty-withdrawal-again-00165903 Here is one of the sources that instilled my belief in Trump's intent to withdraw.
This is alarming and an unfortunate reality. The US is the second leading country in the world in terms of electricity production, and most of our energy is produced from fossil fuels. China is ranked number one in electricity production, so their leadership during the negotiation makes sense and is respectable. China is also a leader in renewable energy. The United States has a great influence in this field as well, and the country would seemingly have success in advocating for cleaner energy if we were to do so. We must use this influential power for good.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think that China is filling a void if the Trump administration withdraws from the Paris Agreement. I believe they are taking advantage of possible lack of foresight the United States might display. While it is a benefit for the world alike that China may step up and make changes when the US may not, it is not good for the US. China is building up a massive renewable energy industry; they are gaining the favor of other countries and a great economical position. It appears that the United States will turn to oil and fossil fuels with the Trump administration. In the articles discussing the implications, coal jobs were brought up. Turning to coal and oil means that the job market can be expanded, turning solely to renewable energy concedes a great drop in jobs; giving in to oil means that jobs in the US will be retained and there might even be job growth. This short term benefit, however, comes at a long term cost. Think if, in twenty years, all developed countries use renewable energies. They will not have to rely on mining costs, only on maintenance costs. If the US still uses primarily fossil fuels at this time they will likely have to purchase its energy from other countries to keep up. The country that will most likely sell this energy will be China who will have developed its clean energy sector drastically. By withdrawing from the Paris agreement and maintaining a focus on nonrenewable energy, I believe that the US will likely find itself behind other countries in the future and possibly in a financially damaged state.
ReplyDeletehttps://e360.yale.edu/features/china-renewable-energy
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/13/nx-s1-5181963/trump-promises-more-drilling-in-the-u-s-to-boost-fossil-fuel-production
Hi Dr Walker, it is concerning that the United States could lose a lot of international influence by stepping out of the Paris Agreement. The US has not had the best relationship with China, so it is a valid concern if China "fills the void" the US left behind in climate change talks. We would be handing over our influence, which could be extremely disadvantageous. The one benefit could be the possibility of China negating the United State's negative impact on the world with its own proactive changes. However, this is not progress. Our world would remain stagnant on the issue of climate change, allowing it to worsen. We need both China and the US to contribute to combating climate change since they are two major countries who contribute to the growth of the problem. I would also like to know what changes China plans to make and what its goals are for reducing harmful impacts on the environment. How will China use its potential leadership role in the Paris Agreement? The answers to these questions would provide insight to China's aims, what we can expect in the battle against climate change, and how critically climate change will be viewed. Here is an article that describes when China's goals will be announced and how these goals could affect the Paris Agreement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/09/china-climate-target-paris-agreement-global-warming-un/
ReplyDeleteIf Trump leaves the Paris Agreement, China is unlikely to step up to take our place. China produces almost double the emissions of the States. If they step up to take the responsibility of America in the agreement, they would likely do so as a false front since it is unlikely for China to stop its leading industry, regardless of the research they do into renewable energy.
ReplyDeleteHello Dominic, I completely agree that China will most likely not take our place in leadership. China is the number one emitter of greenhouse gases, their entire economy is backed by how much export they produce, so China fighting climate change would just be too drastic of a change and completely against them. I believe that the US backing out could be a sign for China that they are not bound by the agreements either, If the US leaves China could also have the possibility to leave and it could dismantle the whole agreement, such with the Kyoto Protocol.
DeleteHi Dr. Walker
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement not only impacts global climate efforts but also allows countries like China to take the lead, affecting the U.S.'s influence and economic opportunities. Staying engaged could help the U.S. shape policies and benefit from green markets. Do you think the U.S. can balance political challenges at home while maintaining global leadership on climate issues? The Climate Casino by William Nordhaus provides insight into the economic and global ramifications of climate inaction
It's so interesting to me that the US (especially under the Trump Administration) is so willing to give up such a fierce and competitive area back to China by essentially throwing the ball into their playing field without any kind of pushback, especially considering how much Trump wanted to show that the US was "beating" China at everything, especially considering the tariffs that he wants to place at on them this term and his general attitude during his first term. If I wanted to prove what a global superpower I was, wouldn't I want to take this wide open opportunity, even if it was in an area I personally disagreed with/didn't believe in? As others mentioned earlier, China uses significantly more coal than the United States, and so it is currently difficult for them to move away from that as quickly as the United States potentially could!
ReplyDelete